Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 15th, 2020
Jen & Cory • July 15, 2020
Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues program of quantitative easing.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The Bank’s short-term liquidity programs announced since March to improve market functioning are having their intended effect and, with reduced market strains, their use has declined. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.
While economies are re-opening, the global and Canadian outlook is extremely uncertain, given the unpredictability of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting this, the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus.
After a sharp drop in the first half of 2020, global economic activity is picking up. This return to growth reflects the relaxation of necessary containment measures put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, combined with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy support. As a result, financial conditions have improved. The prices of most commodities, including oil, have risen from very low levels. In the central scenario, the global economy overall shrinks by about 5 percent in 2020 and then grows by around 5 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. The timing and pace of the recovery varies among regions and could be hampered by a resurgence of infections and the limited capacity of some countries to contain the virus or support their economies.
The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the deepest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery. Since early June, the government has announced additional support programs, and extended others.
There are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output. In the central scenario, roughly 40 percent of the collapse in the first half of the year is made up in the third quarter. Subsequently, the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges. As a result, in the central scenario, real GDP declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures.
CPI inflation is close to zero, pulled down by sharp declines in components such as gasoline and travel services. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to remain weak before gradually strengthening toward 2 percent as the drag from low gas prices and other temporary effects dissipates and demand recovers, reducing economic slack.
As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In addition, to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at a pace of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. This QE program is making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses and will continue until the recovery is well underway. To support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective, the Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 28, 2020.
Recent Posts
Porting Your Mortgage: What You Need to Know Before You Rely on It Porting a mortgage means transferring your existing interest rate, remaining term, and outstanding balance from your current home to a new one when you sell and buy again. While some lenders—especially big banks—make porting sound simple, the reality is that porting a mortgage is often complex and far from guaranteed . It’s not a magic solution, and it doesn’t mean you automatically get to keep your old mortgage on your new home. In many ways, porting a mortgage feels like applying for a brand-new one—often with more conditions . Here’s why. 1. You Still Have to Re-Qualify Even though you already have the mortgage, the lender will reassess you. If you: Changed jobs Moved to a new city Are on probation Switched industries or income types …the lender may decline the port. Your previous approval does not carry over automatically. 2. The New Property Must Be Approved The lender also reassesses the new property . Just because they accepted your previous home as collateral doesn’t mean they’ll approve the next one. Expect: A new appraisal A review of the property’s condition Scrutiny around marketability and value If the lender isn’t comfortable with the property, the port can fail. 3. Property Values Rarely Line Up Perfectly Most moves involve a price difference. Buying a more expensive home: You’ll likely need additional funds at a blended rate, which can increase your payment. Buying a less expensive home: You may face a penalty for reducing the mortgage balance. Either scenario can affect your costs. 4. You Still Need a Down Payment Porting doesn’t mean you “swap houses” without cash. You still need: A down payment on the new purchase Closing costs Funds available at the right time This often surprises buyers. 5. Penalties Usually Still Apply (At First) Most lenders: Charge the full mortgage penalty when you sell Refund it only after the port is successfully completed If you’re relying on sale proceeds for your down payment, this temporary penalty can create a cash-flow issue. 6. Timelines Rarely Line Up Perfectly Real estate markets don’t cooperate. You might: Sell quickly but struggle to buy Find a home quickly but wait months to sell Closing dates rarely align, which complicates porting even further. 7. Port Periods Vary by Lender This is where the fine print matters. Depending on the lender, the port window may be: Same day only 30 days 90 days Up to 6 months If the port window is short, both transactions must close within that timeframe—or the port fails. Longer port periods offer flexibility, but also carry the risk of selling first and not finding a replacement property in time. The Bottom Line Porting your mortgage can make sense—especially if you have a strong rate and are buying a similar-priced home. But it is not guaranteed , and it comes with conditions, risks, and timing challenges. Portability is a feature, not a promise. Before you rely on it, it’s important to review all your options , including whether staying with your lender actually makes financial sense. If you’re planning to sell and buy, I’d be happy to walk you through the process, explain your options clearly, and help you decide whether porting is the right move—or if another strategy makes more sense.
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. While Canada's economic recovery is broadening, a new layer of uncertainty has entered the picture. Here is what happened and what it means for your mortgage.
