Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Jen & Cory • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 29, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.


With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.


While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.


In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.


Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.


Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.


The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.


CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.


With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.


The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.


Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report


Jen & Cory
YOUR MORTGAGE EXPERTS

CONTACT US
Recent Posts

How Your Loans and Spending Habits Are Quietly Shaping Your Credit Score

By Jen & Cory • April 10, 2026
Your credit score is one of the most important numbers in your financial life — especially when it comes to getting a mortgage. But for most Canadians, how that number actually gets calculated remains a bit of a mystery.

RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan Explained: A Smart Way to Buy Your First Home

By Jen & Cory • April 8, 2026
Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest challenges first-time buyers face. What many don’t realize is that the Canadian government offers a program designed to make it easier—the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) . This program allows you to withdraw money from your RRSP to help purchase your first home, without immediate tax consequences. Here’s how it works: Who Qualifies? To be eligible, you generally need to be a first-time home buyer. In practical terms, this means you must not have owned a home in the past four years, nor lived in a property owned by your spouse or partner during that time. There are also special allowances if you’re living with a disability or helping a relative with a disability. In these cases, you can use the HBP even if you’ve owned a home more recently. How Much Can You Withdraw? Under the program, you can access up to $35,000 from your RRSP as an individual. Couples can combine their withdrawals for a total of $70,000 . These funds must have been in your RRSP for at least 90 days before you take them out. Paying It Back The HBP isn’t “free money”—it’s an interest-free loan from your own retirement savings. You’ll have 15 years to repay the full amount back into your RRSP, starting in the second year after withdrawal. Each year, the CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account outlining how much needs to be repaid. If you don’t make your repayment in a given year, that amount will be added to your taxable income. Why It’s a Smart Strategy The HBP can give first-time buyers a powerful boost toward homeownership. It helps you put together a larger down payment, which can reduce your mortgage amount and monthly payments. Just remember: it’s important to balance the short-term benefit of homeownership with the long-term impact on your retirement savings. Next Steps Thinking about using the Home Buyers’ Plan? Let’s sit down and review whether it’s the right move for you. Together, we can create a strategy that gets you into your first home while keeping your future financial goals on track. 📞 Reach out anytime—it would be a pleasure to guide you through the process.